Dubai: Dubai Police has identified and explored 28 future drivers that could shape the region in the years ahead, developing a range of scenarios to better understand emerging threats and prepare for the economic, technological, social, environmental, political and security implications of a rapidly changing world.

The study, developed by the Future Foresight Centre at Dubai Police, with the participation of experts and specialists in future scenario development, examines how current realities, including geopolitical developments affecting the Middle East, could evolve and influence the future.

Rather than attempting to predict a single outcome, the study explores different possibilities and the forces that could drive change, providing a framework for understanding future alternatives and preparing for them.

28 Forces Shaping What Comes Next

The study examined 28 influential future drivers that could affect the course of events, alongside trends that may contribute to shaping the future environment.
The approach seeks to identify forces of future change and explore potential threats while developing a comprehensive foresight framework that allows institutions to understand different possible futures and prepare accordingly.
The scenarios consider developments across six major dimensions: economic, technological, social, environmental, political and security.

Cyber Threats and Critical Infrastructure

Brigadier Dr Hamdan Ahmad Al Ghasiyah, Director of the Future Foresight Centre, said “global cities are vital centers for the economy, trade and tourism, making their stability essential to their continued regional and international role.”
He explained that assessing the stability of global cities can no longer rely solely on traditional indicators. It also requires consideration of interconnected social, cultural, technological, political and environmental factors.

Against a backdrop of regional tensions and geopolitical developments, he said several threats have emerged across key areas, particularly cyberattacks and the targeting of critical infrastructure.

Preparing for Multiple Futures

Brigadier Al Ghasiyah said rapid political transformations and economic volatility have made the study of future possibilities a strategic necessity.
Scenario planning, he explained, allows institutions to analyse areas of uncertainty and develop multiple potential pathways that account for the likelihood of different developments occurring.
These scenarios can then be used to assess potential consequences and develop appropriate measures, strengthening organizational agility and raising levels of readiness through a proactive approach.
The ultimate objective is to prepare institutions for a desired future that aligns with their agendas and national objectives.

Foresight Is More Than Prediction

Colonel Omar Khalifa Balobaida Al Suwaidi, Deputy Director of the Future Foresight Centre, said scenario building is not simply about predicting what will happen or identifying a single path for future events.

Instead, it is designed to broaden strategic thinking, prepare for a range of possibilities and strengthen institutions’ ability to make proactive and flexible decisions in a regional and international environment characterised by significant complexity and uncertainty.

From Uncertainty to Readiness

The study forms part of Dubai Police’s efforts to anticipate developments across the near, medium and long term by examining future visions and strategies and developing analyses and scenarios that support proactive planning.